Silencing the Bomb Page 30

  Brezhnev, Leonid, 5, 126, 234

  The Broken Connection: On Death and the Continuity of Life (Lifton), 257

  Brune, James, 75

  Brzezinski, Zbigniew, 100

  Bulganin, Nikolai, 20

  Burdick, Larry, 104

  Burke, Edmund, 257

  Bush, George H. W., 90, 103, 137, 182

  Bush, George W., 215–17, 246

  Byerly, Perry, 73

  Byrd, Robert, 209

  Byron, Beverly, 117

  Canada, 14, 21–22

  Cannikin test (1971), 39, 237, 246

  Carter, Jimmy, 79, 100–102, 185–86, 234

  Case, Clifford, 72

  CCD. See Conference of the Committee on Disarmament

  CD. See Conference on Disarmament

  Chafee, John, 209

  chemical explosions, 42, 44–45, 51–52, 133, 152, 165, 178, 214, 230

  China, 157; and CTBT, xi, 6, 37, 159, 162; current capabilities for monitoring, 171; earthquakes in, 175, 194; and LTBT, 37; and missile defense, 248; and NAS report of 2012, 219; nuclear tests, 14, 179; number of nuclear weapons, 15; and Pakistan’s nuclear program, 182–83; possible technical achievements for different yield ranges, 221–25; salt deposits in, 50; tensions with India, 178–79, 240; test site (see Lop Nor test site)

  Chirac, Jacques, 207

  Christmas Island test site, 31

  Cifuentes, Inés, 109–10, 128–29

  Clinton, Bill, 6, 197; and CTBT, 35, 152, 160–62, 195–96, 199–201, 208, 210, 211; and CTBT task force, 211; halt to U.S. testing, 125, 137

  Cloverdell, Paul, 203

  Cochran, Thomas B., 61

  Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), xii, xiv; arguments against/opposition to, 17–20, 102, 103, 137–38, 141, 160–61, 198, 202–9, 211, 217; arguments for/support for, 19–20, 71–79, 196–99, 203, 206, 207; Bush (G. W.) and, 216–17; Clinton and, 35, 152, 160–62, 195–96, 199–201, 208, 210, 211; congressional hearings on (1971, 1972), 75–79; CTBT task force, 211–12; defeated in Senate (1999), 19, 35, 41, 162, 195–210; developments prior to Senate vote (1997, 1998), 195–200; and evasive testing, 41, 76–77, 205–7, 228–31; Kennedy and, 34; monitoring stations, xiv, 139–40 (see also monitoring and identification of nuclear weapons tests); and NAS report of 2002, 212–14; and NAS report of 2012, 217–31; negotiations (1977), 102; negotiations (1993–1996), 159–62; Obama and, 199, 217; and OTA’s independent review of test ban issues (1986–1988), 127; and political issues, 128, 196–97, 202, 208; problems with ratification and the UN’s Committee on Disarmament, 161–62; public opinion on, 19, 199, 207; Reagan and, 136–37; renewed interest in the 1980s and 1990s, 127–42; safeguards submitted by Clinton, 195–96; signers’ adherence to, 195; signers and nonsigning countries, 79, 87, 161–62, 187; signing of, 159; Sykes and Evernden’s Scientific American article on verification (1982), 103–4, 127–28; and TTBT, 6; and zero nuclear yield as limit, 18, 160, 204, 206, 211, 227

  Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), 140, 162, 165–66, 174, 227

  computer hacking, 243, 245

  Conference of the Committee on Disarmament (CCD), 139, 143

  Conference on Disarmament (CD), 139, 159, 161

  Conference on the Discontinuance of Nuclear Tests (1958, 1959), 25, 28–29

  Conference of Experts (1958), 22–25, 64

  Congress, U.S.: defunding of OTA, 199–200; and failure to ratify CTBT, 19, 35, 41, 162, 195–210; and funding for nuclear tests, 136–37; hearings on verification and testing (1985, 1986), 117–18; and OTA’s independent review of test ban issues (1986–1988), 118–19, 127; and renewed interest in a CTBT (1979–1996), 127, 136–37; short senate hearings and debate on CTBT prior to vote, 200–210; and TTBT, 136

  The Containment of Underground Nuclear Explosions (OTA report of 1989), 134

  CORRTEX method of yield measurement, 120–21, 123, 125

  Cowboy chemical explosions (1959), 42, 44–45, 51–52

  Cox, Allan, 72

  Cranswick, Edward, 134

  craters, produced by underground tests, 57(figure), 58, 84, 86, 88, 89, 129, 179

  Crutzen, P., 254

  CTBT. See Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

  CTBTO. See Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization

  Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 31–32, 37, 240–41

  Dahlman, Ola, 139, 159

  DARPA. See Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

  Daschle, Thomas, 200–201

  Davis, Daniel, 232, 234, 236–37

  decoupling/muffling underground explosions, 40–54; and claims of Russian evasive testing, 52–53 (see also under Russia/Soviet Union); and CTBT Senate debate, 205–7; databases on tests, 45–46; and difference between probability and possibility, 44; and limited size of cavities in Russian Federation, 87; misstatements and misleading inferences about, 40–45, 205–7; and NAS report of 2002, 214; partially decoupled Soviet test at Azgir (1976), 83, 89, 231; technological challenges of, 228–31; and testing in caves, 206; and testing in salt, 47(figure), 48(figure), 49–50; U.S. meetings on (1996 and 2001), 53–54; and U.S. overestimation of yields, 49; U.S. tests in very small cavities, 50–51. See also evasive testing

  Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA): and AGU symposium on verification (1983), 105–11, 128; and choice of consulting firms, 136; and claims of Russian cheating on TTBT, 105, 110; and debate over yield calculations, 103–4; and international seismic monitoring tests, 140; and negative views about monitoring, 128–31, 141; and opposition to full test ban, 103, 141; panel meetings on yield determination (1983–1985), 111–14; political influence of, 142; Research and Systems Development Initiative, 141–42

  Defense Science Board, 98–99

  Defense Special Weapons Agency (DSWA), 53

  Defense Threat Reduction Agency, 53

  de Klerk, E. W., 186

  DeLaure, Richard D., 112

  Detecting the Bomb: The Role of Seismology in the Cold War (Romney), 22, 60, 74

  Diamond, John, 154

  Dirksen, Everett, 36

  Dole, Robert, 160, 232

  Domenici, Pete, 196–97

  Donn, William, 185

  Doomsday Clock, 258

  Drell, Sidney, 198, 203–4

  DSWA. See Defense Special Weapons Agency

  earthquakes: and aftershocks of Benham test (1968), 80; determining depths of earthquakes and explosions, 62–64; and evasive testing, 76–77, 129–30; identification of, 23, 26–27, 66–69 (see also monitoring and identification of nuclear weapons tests); and International Monitoring System, 169–70; location of, 63(figure), 64(figure); locations in states of the former Soviet Union, 133; and monitoring countries of special interest, 174–94; and plate tectonics, 69–70; and “problem” or “anomalous” events (1972–2009), 143–58, 191–94, 192(figure), 193(figure), 227; seismic waves from, 24(figure); and U.S. concerns about verification as obstacle to treaties, 26–27. See also specific countries

  Eimer, Fred, 205

  Eisenhauer, Thomas, 93, 94

  Eisenhower, Dwight D., 17, 20–22, 25–29, 33, 43, 44, 184

  Ekström, Göran, 121, 124

  Ess test (1955), 58

  evasive testing, xiii–xiv, 76–77; and decoupling/muffling underground explosions (“big hole” hypothesis), 40–54 (see also decoupling/muffling underground explosions); and detection of radionuclides, 163–64; and “hide-in-earthquake” scenario, 77, 129–30; and misinformation during CTBT Senate debate, 205–7; and NAS report of 2002, 214; and NAS report of 2012, 228–31; technological challenges of, 228–31. See also monitoring and identification of nuclear weapons tests

  Evernden, Jack, 112; and analysis of monitoring the Soviet Union (1983), 129; and damage to nearby structures as limit on size of tests, 109; and debate over yield calculations, 103, 104, 105, 107; and high-frequency seismic monitoring, 134–36; Scientific American article on verification (1982), 104, 127–28; and support for CTBT, 71–74; and variation in P
-wave propagation, 60

  Ewing, Maurice, 122, 164

  false alarm problem, 76, 143, 156, 242–44

  Farley, Philip, 78

  Fat Man, 9, 10

  Fedorov, Yevgeni, 22

  Fisher test (1961), 58

  Fisk, James, 22

  Fisk, Mark, 191

  Flanagan, Dennis, 127

  Forsyth, Donald, 144

  Foster, John, 34–36, 225–26

  fracking, 85–86

  France: and CTBT, xi, 37, 159; first nuclear test (1960), 29; and hydroacoustic and infrasound studies, 164; and LTBT, 37; number of nuclear weapons, 15; summary of weapons tests, 14; test site in Algeria, 69, 95, 101, 111; uranium from Niger, 191

  Frank, Jerome, 256

  Frisch, Otto Robert, 8

  Frist, Bill, 198

  Fuchs, Klaus, 10

  Fukushima, Japan, 170

  Gadget test (1945), 8

  Gafney, Frank, 156

  Garwin, Richard, 196, 203, 205

  Gasbuggy test (1967), 85

  Gertz, Bill, 151, 157, 194, 202

  Gingrich, Newt, 200

  Glenn, L. A., 50, 54

  Gnome test (1961), 43, 60, 85, 93

  Gorbachev, Mikhail, 87, 90, 120, 131, 248

  Gordon, Michael, 113–14, 121

  Gore, Al, 210, 216–17

  Grafenberg seismic array (Germany), 122

  Great Britain: and CTBT, xi, 102, 159; development and testing of nuclear weapons, 12, 14, 31; early attempts to identify nuclear tests, 21–22; number of nuclear weapons, 15

  Gromyko, Andrei, 2, 126

  Group of Scientific Experts (GSE), 139–40, 159–60

  GSETT-1, GSETT-2, GSETT-3 (international seismic monitoring tests), 139–40

  Gulf War, 254–55

  Hade, George, 70

  Hafemeister, David, 125

  Hagel, Charles, 215

  Hahn, Otto, 8

  Hannon, James, 114–15

  Hardhat test (1962), 52, 95

  Harriman, W. Averell, 32

  Hartse, Hans, 218

  Hatfield-Exon-Mitchell Nuclear Moratorium Amendment, 137

  Heckrotte, Warren, 3

  Heirtzler, James, 72

  Helmberger, Donald, 98, 99

  Helms, Jesse, 198, 200, 203, 206, 207, 216

  Henderson, R. W., 34

  Heritage Foundation, 225–27

  Herrin, Eugene, 3, 4; and DARPA panel meetings on yield determination, 112; and debate over yield calculations, 59, 60–61, 93–95, 98; and identification of anomalous seismic events, 154

  Hersh, Seymour, 185–86

  Heuzé, F. A., 52

  High-Gain, Long-Period seismographs (HGLPs), 70–72, 76

  Hindu Kush, 63

  Hiroshima, 9, 10

  Hoggar region (Algeria), 101

  Holdren, John, 212, 217

  Holifield, Chester, 41

  hydroacoustic waves, 22, 164, 169

  hydrodynamic tests, 222, 224

  hydronuclear tests, 224–25

  ICBMs, 31, 233–34, 237, 240, 243

  IDC. See International Data Center

  Indefensible Weapons: The Political and Psychological Case Against Nuclearism (Lifton), 257

  India: Clinton and, 197; consequences of nuclear exchange with Pakistan, 254; and CTBT, xi, 6, 20, 161, 162; and LTBT, 37, 79; monitoring of, 178–81, 230; nonparticipation in international monitoring, 166, 179; and NPT, 79; nuclear tests, 14, 37, 170, 178–81, 194; number of nuclear weapons, 15, 240; and peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs), 83–84, 180; Pokhran test site, 179; salt deposits in, 50; tensions with China and Pakistan, 178–79, 180–82, 240; unidentified seismic events/nuclear explosions, 192(figure), 193(figure)

  infrasound, 21, 164

  Inhofe, James, 201

  INSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar), 164, 181, 229

  International Data Center (IDC), 153, 162, 167; U.S. attempt to restrict data from, 171–73

  International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, 169

  International Monitoring System (IMS), 140, 153, 167(figure), 168(figure), 187; current operations, 166–71, 220; described, 162–63; and NAS report of 2002, 213–14; nonmilitary uses (tsunami warnings, etc.), 169–70; and North Korean nuclear tests, 176, 177(figure); and pros and cons of CTBT, 18, 202

  Iran, 14, 187–91; and CTBT, 161, 187; and danger of transfer of nuclear technology to other actors, 247; and evasive testing, 54; geology and earthquakes, 187–91, 190(figure); and Israel, 247; and missile defense, 247; salt deposits in, 50

  Iraq, 191, 194

  Israel: and CTBT, xi, 6, 159, 186; and Iran, 247; Israeli and South African nuclear cooperation, 185–86; and missile defense, 248; monitoring of, 185; and NPT, 79, 186; nuclear program, 14, 184–85; number of nuclear weapons, 15

  Item test (1951), 10

  Jackson, Henry, 36

  Jacob, Klaus, 80–82

  Jaycor (consulting group), 53–54

  Jeanloz, Raymond, 212

  Jeffords, Jim, 209

  Johnston Island test site, 25, 31

  JVE (Joint Verification Experiment) explosion (1988), 123, 126

  Kaiser, Robert, 209

  Kazakhstan, 87, 92; test sites (see Azgir test site; Semipalatinsk test site)

  Kearsarge test (1988), 126

  Kelly, Michael, 255

  Kennedy, John F., 17, 21, 28, 31–35

  Kerr, Ann, 140

  Kerr, Donald, 124

  Khan, A. Q., 14, 182–83

  Khrushchev, Nikita, 28, 30–33

  Kidder, Ray, 137–38, 157–58, 207

  Killian, James, 43, 44

  Kim, Won-Young, 153, 177

  Kimball, Daryl, 157, 198, 202

  Kissinger, Henry, 1–2, 5, 126, 198, 249, 250

  Kisslinger, Carl, 98

  Knowles, Cyrus, 214

  Kulp, Larry, 20

  Kuwait, oil fires in, 254–55

  Kyl, Jon, 201, 203, 208

  Latin America, 37

  Latter, Albert, 40, 41, 42, 43

  Leith, William, 50, 54, 90, 214

  Levin, Carl, 210

  Lg waves, 121–26, 177

  Libya, 14, 54, 182

  Liebermann, Robert, 66

  Lifton, Robert Jay, 256–57

  Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT), 6; and accusations of Soviet cheating, 163; countries participating, 37; and detecting radionuclides, 163; exclusion of underground testing from, 40, 69; Kennedy and, 21, 32–33, 35; negotiations following Cuban Missile Crisis, 32–33; positive and negative consequences of, 36–39; Senate approval of, 36; signing of, 33; support for and opposition to, 33–36; and Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America, 37

  Linger, Don, 214

  Little Boy, 9, 227

  Long-Range Detection program, 9

  Lop Nor test site: and earthquakes, 194; monitoring of, 171, 175, 176(figure), 221, 230; and Pakistan’s nuclear program, 183; unidentified seismic events/nuclear explosions, 193(figure)

  Lott, Trent, 198, 200, 201, 202, 203, 205, 206, 207, 216

  Love, A. E. H., 71

  Love waves, 70–71, 110

  LTBT. See Limited Test Ban Treaty

  Lukasik, Steven, 72, 75

  Macmillan, Harold, 28

  Mandela, Nelson, 186

  Manhattan Project, 7–9

  Marshall, Peter, 96, 97, 101, 109, 112, 122, 124, 148, 159, 235, 237

  Massé, Robert, 100

  Matthews, Drummond, 72

  May, Michael, 3

  McEvilly, Thomas, 97

  McNamara, Robert, 33, 34, 35, 240

  McTigue, Brian, 114

  Meitner, Lise, 8

  Melville, C. P., 188

  Middle East, 187–91. See also specific countries

  Mike test (1952), 10–11

  Mikhailov, V. N., 125, 126

  Mill Yard test (1985), 46, 50–51

  Milrow test (1969), 39

  Minster, Bernard, 110

  MIRVs, 38, 78, 237, 243, 249, 250


  missile defense, 35, 39, 102, 246–49

  Molnar, Peter, 80

  monitoring and identification of nuclear weapons tests: AGU symposium on verification (1983), 105–11, 128; Bache and Alewine’s negative views about monitoring, 128–31; Bache’s letter to Sykes about high-frequency seismic monitoring, 134–36; and Berkner Panel, 26–27; black boxes, 27, 33; claims (refuted) that 1997 earthquake in Kara Sea was a nuclear explosion, 151–57; and Conference of Experts (1958), 22–25; and CTBT Senate debate, 202–7; current capabilities, 166–71, 219–21, 226–27, 256; and decoupling/muffling underground explosions (“big hole” hypothesis), 40–54 (see also decoupling/muffling underground explosions); detection of hydroacoustic waves, 22, 164, 169; detection of infrasound, 21, 164; detection of radionuclides, 163–64, 170, 177, 220–21; detection of seismic surface waves, 65–66 (see also seismic waves); and detection vs. verification, 226; determining depths of earthquakes and explosions, 62–64; development of new seismographs for nuclear verification, 70–72; early attempts to identify nuclear tests, 21–25; early monitoring technologies, 21–22; and earthquakes, 22–23, 26–27, 143–58 (see also earthquakes; seismic waves); improved detection and identification capabilities, 62–74, 157–58, 162–71, 171(figure); international monitoring efforts, 139–40, 153, 162–71, 167(figure), 168(figure) (see also International Monitoring System); and lessons learned from 1997 anomalous seismic event, 156; and LTBT, 33; and misstatements on evasive testing, 41–42; monitoring countries of special interest, 174–94 (see also specific countries); and NAS report of 2002, 213–14; National Technical Means (NTM), 33, 133, 164, 202, 219; new technologies (1963–1973), 62–74; and OTA’s independent review of test ban issues (1986–1988), 118–19, 127, 128, 132–35, 142; and plate tectonics, 69–70, 188; and political issues, 73–74, 132, 142; “problem” or “anomalous” events (1972–2009), 143–58, 158(figure), 191–94, 192(figure), 193(figure); seismic monitoring by U.S. scientists in the Soviet Union, 131–32; Sykes and Evernden’s Scientific American article on verification (1982), 103, 104, 127–28; Sykes et al.’s analysis of monitoring the Soviet Union (1983), 128–29; U.S. attempt to restrict data from IDC, 171–73; U.S. paper on anomalous events submitted to UN (1972), 143–45. See also on-site inspections; satellite imaging; seismic arrays; seismic magnitudes; seismic waves; seismology; yield

  Moulthrop, Peter, 112

  Moynihan, Patrick, 201, 210

  Ms – mb method, 66–69, 67–68(figures), 143–44, 184

  Murphy, John, 45

  Muskie, Edmund, 77