Silencing the Bomb Page 29
LRD (LONG-RANGE DETECTION)—Operated by U.S. Air Force to monitor nuclear testing by other countries
LTBT (LIMITED TEST BAN TREATY)—1963 treaty that banned nuclear tests in the atmosphere, in space, and underwater
MAGNITUDE—A measure of the size of a seismic event
MICROEARTHQUAKES—Earthquakes smaller than magnitude 3
MIRV—Multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicle containing two or more warheads
MT (MEGATON)—Energy equal to 1 million tons of TNT
MW (MOMENT MAGNITUDE)—Very long period of seismic magnitude
NGO—A nongovernmental organization
NIF (NATIONAL IGNITION FACILITY)—Lasers at Livermore used to create fusion
NOVAYA ZEMLYA—Arctic test sites of Soviet Union
NPT (NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION TREATY)—Multilateral treaty on possession and development of nuclear weapons
NTM (NATIONAL TECHNICAL MEANS)—A nation’s monitoring facilities
NTS—Nevada Test Site of the United States
NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL—Limits or restraints on nuclear weapons and/or their delivery vehicles that are mutually agreed upon between states
NWFZ (NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONE)—A region agreed by states within it to be nuclear free by treaty
OPPENHEIMER, J. ROBERT—Director of Los Alamos during World War II
PNET (PEACEFUL NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS TREATY)—Prohibition on testing of peaceful nuclear explosions underground larger than 150 kilotons by USSR and United States
PRESS, FRANK—Geophysicist; President Carter’s science adviser; president of the National Academy of Sciences
RADIONUCLIDE MONITORING—Technologies to detect radioactive particulates and noble gases
RICHARDS, PAUL—Seismologist involved with test bans
RICHTER, CHARLES—Seismologist who devised first magnitude scale
ROMNEY, CARL—Seismologist involved with test bans
SALT I AND II (STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION TREATIES)—Limitations on intercontinental delivery systems agreed to by United States and USSR
SEABORG, GLEN—Scientist who discovered plutonium; high-level adviser during Kennedy and Johnson administrations
SEISMICITY—Descriptions of locations and sizes of earthquakes and their relationship(s) to geological features
SEISMOLOGY—Study of earthquakes and earth structure
SORT (STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE REDUCTION TREATY)—Follow-on to SALT treaties
START (STRATEGIC ARMS REDUCTION TREATIES)—Follow-on to SALT
STOCKPILE STEWARDSHIP—A program to ensure that nuclear weapons will work in the future without nuclear testing
TECTONICS—Discipline of geology involving processes that control structure, deformation, and properties of Earth, moons, and planets
TELLER, EDWARD—Physicist involved with development of U.S. nuclear weapons
THERMONUCLEAR WEAPON—Sometimes called a hydrogen or fusion bomb; fusion only takes place at temperatures of millions of degrees, requiring triggering by a primary fission explosion
TRIAD—Delivery system consisting of land-and sea-based missiles and aircraft
TTBT (THRESHOLD TEST BAN TREATY)—Prohibition on underground testing of nuclear weapons larger than 150 kilotons agreed to by USSR and United States
USSR—Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
WARHEAD—The nuclear weapon carried by a delivery system
YIELD—Energy released by a nuclear explosion
REFERENCES
Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC). A Fifty Year Commemorative History of Long Range Detection. Patrick Air Force Base, FL: Air Force Technical Applications Center, 1997.
Albright, D., P. Brannan, Z. Laporte, K. Tajer, and C. Walrond. Rendering Useless South Africa’s Nuclear Test Shafts in the Kalahari Desert. Institute for Science and International Security, November 30, 2011.
Alvarez, L. W., W. Alvarez, F. Asaro, and H. V. Michel. “Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous–Tertiary Extinction.” Science 208 (1980): 1095–1108.
Ambraseys, N. N., and C. P. Melville. A History of Persian Earthquakes. London: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
Bache, T. C. Estimating the Yield of Underground Nuclear Explosions. DARPA–Geophysical Sciences Division 82–03, 1982.
Bache, T. C., and R. W. Alewine. “Monitoring a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.” Presentation to the American Geophysical Union, Special Session on Verification of Nuclear Test Bans, Baltimore MD, June 2, 1983.
Bache, T. C., W. J. Best, R. R. Blandford, G. V. Bulin, D. G. Harkrider, E. J. Herrin, A. Ryall, and M. J. Shore. A Technical Assessment of Seismic Yield Estimation. DARPA NMR 81–02, 1981.
Bache, T. C., S. R. Bratt, and L. B. Bache. “P Wave Attenuation, mb Bias and the Threshold Test Ban Treaty.” DARPA Annual Review, 1986, 194–201.
Bailey, K. C. Hydronuclear Experiments: Why They Are Not a Proliferation Danger. UCRL-ID-118538. Livermore, CA: Lawrence Livermore National Lab, 1994.
Berberian, M. “100 Years; 126,000 Deaths.” Encyclopaedia Iranica. Abadan Publishing Co., 1997. http://iranian.com/Iranica/June97/Earthquake/Text2.html.
Blair, B. The Logic of Accidental Nuclear War. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1993.
Blandford, R. R., R. H. Shumway, R. Wagner, and K. L. McLaughlin. Magnitude Yield for Nuclear Explosions at Several Test Sites with Allowance for Effects of Truncated Data, Amplitude Correlation Between Events Within Test Sites, Absorption and pP. Technical Report, TGAL-TR-83-6, Teledyne Geotech, 1984.
Bolt, B. A. Nuclear Explosions and Earthquakes: The Parted Veil. San Francisco: Freeman, 1976.
Carothers, J. E. Caging the Dragon: The Containment of Underground Nuclear Explosions. U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Agency Report DOE/NV-388 DNA TR 95–74. Washington, DC: 1995.
Cochran, T. B., W. M. Arkin, and M. M. Hoenig. U.S. Nuclear Forces and Capabilities: Vol. I. Nuclear Weapons Databook. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1984.
Cochran, T. B., W. M. Arkin, R. S. Norris, and J. I. Sands. Soviet Nuclear Weapons: Vol. IV. Nuclear Weapons Databook. New York: Harper & Row, 1989.
Collina, T. Z., and D. G. Kimball. Now More Than Ever: The Case for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Washington DC: Arms Control Association, 2010.
Dahlman, O., and H. Israelson. Monitoring Underground Nuclear Explosions. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1977.
Dahlman, O., S. Mykkeltveit, and H. Haak. Nuclear Test Ban: Converting Political Visions to Reality. Springer, 2009.
Davis, D. M., and L. R. Sykes. “Geological Constraints on Clandestine Nuclear Testing in South Asia.” Proceeding of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences 96 (1999): 11090–11095.
Engdahl, E. R., J. A. Jackson, S. C. Myers, E. A. Bergman, and K. Priestley. “Relocation and Assessment of Seismicity in the Iran Region.” Geophysical Journal International 167 (2006): 761–778.
Evernden, J. F.. “Magnitude Determination at Regional and Near-Regional Distances in the United States.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society America 57 (1967): 591–639.
Evernden, J. F., and L. R. Sykes. “Nuclear Test Yields.” Science 223 (1984): 642–644.
Feiveson, H. A., A. Glaser, Z. Mian, and F. N. Von Hippel. Unmaking the Bomb: A Fissile Material Approach to Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2014.
Fisk, M. D., and W. S. Phillips. “Constraining Regional Phase Amplitude Models for Eurasia: Part 2. Frequency-Dependent Attenuation and Site Effects.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society America 103 (2013): 3265–3288.
Hersh, S. M. The Sampson Option: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy. New York: Random House, 1991.
Heuze, F. E., D. R. Wilburn, J. A. Russell, and D. I. Bleiwas. Estimated Use of Explosives in the Mining Industries of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, and Libya. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, September 1995.
Khalturin, V. I., T. G. Rautian, P. G. Richards, and W. S. Leith. “A Review of Nuclear Testing by the Soviet Union at Novaya Zemlya, 1955–1
990.” Science and Global Security 13 (2005): 1–42.
Kidder, R. E. “Militarily Significant Nuclear Explosive Yields.” F.A.S. Public Interest Report: Journal of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) 38, no. 7 (1985): 1–3.
Kim, W.-Y., P. G. Richards, and L. R. Sykes. “Discrimination of Earthquakes and Explosions Near Nuclear Test Sites Using Regional High-Frequency Data.” Poster SEISMO-27J. International Scientific Studies Conference, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, Vienna, June 2009.
Kulp, L. R., A. R. Schubert, and E. J. Hodges. “Strontium-90 in Man III: The Annual Increase of This Isotope and Its Pattern of WorldWide Distribution in Man Defined.” Science 129 (1959): 1249–1255.
Kværna, T., F. Ringdal, J. Schweitzer, and L. Taylor. “Optimized Seismic Threshold Monitoring—Part 1: Regional Processing.” Pure and Applied Geophysics 159 (2002): 969–987.
Marshall, P. D., and D. L. Springer. “Is the Velocity of Pn an Indicator of Qα?” Nature 264 (1976): 531–533.
Marshall, P. D., D. L. Springer, and H. C. Rodean. “Magnitude Corrections for Attenuation in the Upper Mantle.” Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 57 (1979): 609–638.
Mikhailov, V. N., ed. USSR Nuclear Weapons Tests and Peaceful Nuclear Explosions: 1949 Through 1990. Sarov, Russia: Ministry of the Russian Federation for Atomic Energy and Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, 1996.
National Academies of the United States. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty—Technical Issues for the United States. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2012. Previous study published in 2002.
Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), Congress of the United States. The Containment of Underground Nuclear Explosions. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1989.
——. Seismic Verification of Nuclear Testing Treaties. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1988.
Pasyanos, M. E., E. M. Matzel, W. R. Walter, and A. J. Rodgers. “BroadBand Lg Attenuation Modelling in the Middle East.” Geophysical Journal International 177 (2009): 1166–1176.
Pike, J., and J. Rich. “The Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT): Have the Soviets Exceeded the 150 Kiloton Limit?” F.A.S. Public Interest Report: Journal of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) 37, no. 3 (1984): 16–20.
Reed, T. C., and D. B. Stillman. The Nuclear Express. Minneapolis MN: Zenith, 2009.
Rhodes, R. Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1995.
——. The Making of the Atomic Bomb. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1986.
Ringdal, F., P. D. Marshall, and R. W. Alewine. “Seismic Yield Determination of Soviet Underground Nuclear Explosions at the Shagan River Test Site.” Geophysical Journal International 109 (1992): 65–77.
Robinson, C. P., J. Foster, and T. Scheber. “The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Questions and Challenges.” Lecture delivered April 10, 2012. The Heritage Foundation, no. 1218 (November 7, 2012).
Romney, C. Detecting the Bomb: The Role of Seismology in the Cold War. Washington, DC: New Academic, 2009.
Seaborg, G. T. Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Test Ban. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1981.
Shultz, G. P., S. P. Andreasen, S. P. Drell, and J. E. Goodby, eds. Reykjavik Revisited: Steps Toward a World Free of Nuclear Weapons. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University, 2008.
Shultz, G. P., W. J. Perry, H. A. Kissinger, and S. Nunn. “Toward a Nuclear-Free World.” Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2008, A15.
Springer, D. L., G. A. Pawloski, J. L. Ricca, R. F. Rohrer, and D.K. Smith. “Seismic Source Summary for All U.S. Below-Surface Nuclear Explosions.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92 (2002): 1806–1840.
Starr, S., L. Eden, and T. A. Postol. “What Would Happen If an 800-Kiloton Nuclear Warhead Detonated Above Midtown Manhattan?” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 71 (2015).
Sultanov, D. D., J. R. Murphy, and Kh. D. Rubinstein. “A Seismic Source Summary for Soviet Peaceful Nuclear Explosions.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 89 (1999): 640–647.
Sykes, L. R. “Dealing with Decoupled Nuclear Explosions Under a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.” In Monitoring a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, ed. E. S. Husebye and A. M. Dainty, 247–293. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic, 1996.
——. “False and Misleading Claims About Verification During the Senate Debate on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.” F.A.S. Public Interest Report: Journal of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) 53, no. 3 (2000): 1–12.
——. “Four Decades of Progress in Seismic Identification Help Verify the CTBT.” Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 83, no. 44 (2002): 497–500.
——. “Small Earthquake Near Russian Test Site Leads to U.S. Charges of Cheating on Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.” F.A.S. Public Interest Report: Journal of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) 50, no. 6 (1997): 1–12.
Sykes, L. R., and D. M. Davis. “The Yields of Soviet Strategic Weapons.” Scientific American 256, no. 1 (1987): 29–37.
Sykes, L. R., and J. F. Evernden. “The Verification of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban.” Scientific American 247, no. 4 (1982): 47–55.
Sykes, L. R., J. F. Evernden, and I. Cifuentes. “Seismic Methods for Verifying Nuclear Test Bans.” In Physics, Technology, and the Nuclear Arms Race, ed. D. W. Hafemeister and D. Schroeer, 85–133. New York: American Institute of Physics, 1983. Figures and one table reproduced with the permission of AIP Publishing.
Sykes, L. R., and M. Nettles. “Dealing with Hard-to-Identify Seismic Events Globally and Those Near Nuclear Test Sites.” Poster SEISMO 26J. International Scientific Studies Conference, Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization, Vienna, June 2009.
Toon, O. B., A. Robock, R. P. Turco, C. Bardeen, L. Oman, and G. L. Stenchikov. “Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts.” Science 315 (2007): 1224–1225.
Turco, R. P., O. B. Toon, T. P. Ackerman, J. B. Pollack, and C. Sagan. “Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions.” Science 222 (1983): 1283–1292.
Von Hippel, F.. “Gorbachev’s Unofficial Arms-Control Advisers.” Physics Today, September 2013, 41–47.
Weinberg, S. “Can Missile Defense Work?” New York Review of Books, February 14, 2002, 41–48.
Note: Ron Doel, now of Oregon State University, recorded seven sessions of oral history with me in 1996 and 1997. They include my childhood, education, the development of plate tectonics, and my work on nuclear test verification. Each is available through either the Oral History Research Office of Columbia University or the American Institute of Physics. I was not given the opportunity to correct spelling and other minor mistakes in the AIP transcript before it was placed on their website.
INDEX
Page numbers refer to the print edition but are hyperlinked to the appropriate location in the e-book.
ABM systems. See missile defense
ABM Treaty. See Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty
accidents and false alarms (1950–2007), 244–46. See also false alarm problem
ACDA. See Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
Ackerman, T. P., 252–54
Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), 73–74
AEDS. See Atomic Energy Detecting System
AFTAC. See Air Force Technical Application Center
AGU. See American Geophysical Union
Air Force Technical Application Center (AFTAC), 3, 9, 165; as data center, 153, 165, 171–73; and debate over yield calculations, 61, 92–96; and NAS report of 2012, 220; role in monitoring nuclear tests, 41–42; Romney and, 73–74
Albright, Madeleine K., 200, 210, 211
Alewine, Ralph, 235; and AGU symposium on verification (1983), 105, 107; and anomalous seismic events, 155; and DARPA panel meetings on yield determination, 111–12; and DARPA’s Nuclear Monitoring Office, 141; and improved verification methods refuting claims of Soviet cheating, 124�
�25; opposition to full test ban, 103; opposition to release of data from IDC, 172–73; Sykes and, 117, 125; and yield determinations using Lg waves, 122
Algeria, French testing site in, 69, 95, 101, 111
alluvium, testing in, 56–58, 93, 129
Alvarez, Luis, 251
Ambraseys, N. N., 188
Amchitka Island test site, 39, 111, 246
American Geophysical Union (AGU), 134, 206, 216; AGU symposium on verification (1983), 105–11, 128
Anderson, Jack, 237
Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, 105, 215, 246
ARCESS seismic array (Norway), 153
Archambeau, Charles, 114–16, 128, 131, 134, 136
Arctic test site. See Novaya Zemlya test site
argon, detection of, 163, 220
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA), 53
ARPA. See Advanced Research Projects Agency
Atomic Energy Commission, 28, 35, 36, 39, 43, 78, 84
Atomic Energy Detecting System (AEDS), 3, 9, 23, 61
Australia, 161
Azgir test site (western Kazakhstan): partially decoupled test at (1976), 46–47, 49, 54, 83, 89, 231; and peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs), 87–89; salt at, 50, 87–89
Bache, Thomas, 103, 104, 105, 107, 112, 117, 125, 134–36
Bailey, Kathleen, 224–25
Baker test (1946), 23
Becket, Marta, 81–82
Bell, Robert, 155, 172–73
Benham test (1968), 80–82
Berberian, M., 188
Berger, Samuel R., 200
Berkner, Lloyd, 26, 62
Berkner Panel, 26–27, 44
Best, William, 77
Bethe, Hans, 45
Biden, Joseph, 196, 200, 201, 210
“big-hole” hypothesis, 40–54. See also evasive testing
“Big Ivan”/“Tsar Bomb” test (1961), 30
Bikini Atoll test site, 12
Billingslea, Marshall, 203
Birks, J. W., 254
Blair, Tony, 207
Blanca test (1958), 65–66
Blandford, Robert, 111
Bocharov, V. S., 122, 125
Bohr, Niels, 8
Bolt, Bruce, 61
Bowyer, Theodore, 218
Bradbury, Norris, 35
Bravo test (1954), 12
Brekhovskikh, Leonid, 26