Silencing the Bomb Read online

  Tatar, M., 189

  Tathum, Robert, 144

  Taylor, Maxwell, 34, 35

  Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban (NAS report of 2002), 212–14

  tectonic release, 94, 109–10

  Teller, Edward, 35–36, 40–44

  Terrell, Norman, 3

  Thatcher, Margaret, 102

  Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT), xiii, xiv, 30(figure); claims of Russian cheating, xiii, xiv, 59, 69, 91, 98, 103, 105, 123; limits set by, 5–6, 126; negotiations on, xiv, 1–6, 91, 126, 233; provisions of, 92; ratification of, 103; Reagan administration and, 104–5, 120, 136; revised protocol of 1990, 125–26; signing of, 83, 90, 126; Soviet assessment of (2006), 126; verification of, and debate over yield calculations, 91–126; and yield vs. seismic magnitude as measure of maximum size of underground tests, 58, 83, 93

  Timerbaev, Roland, 5, 126

  Tiny Tot test (1965), 51, 52

  Toon, A. B., 252–56

  Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapons Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space, and Under Water. See Limited Test Ban Treaty

  Truman, Harry S., 10

  Trump, Donald, 257

  TTBT. See Threshold Test Ban Treaty

  tuff, testing in, 23, 43, 56, 58, 93

  Turco, R. P., 251, 252–55

  Turnbull, Larry, 50, 52, 155, 205, 207, 214, 216

  Ukraine, 187

  Unde test (1951), 58

  United Nations, 6, 161–62, 195, 227. See also Committee on Disarmament

  United States: accusations of Soviet cheating, xiii, xiv, 30–31, 59, 69, 91, 98, 103, 105, 110–11, 114–17, 119, 124–25, 151–57, 163–64; atmospheric tests, 10–12, 11(figure), 24–25; chemical explosions, 51–52; claims (refuted) that 1997 earthquake in Kara Sea was a nuclear explosion, 151–57; concerns about verification as obstacle to treaties, 26–28, 34, 202, 206; development and testing of nuclear weapons, 7–14; distrust of Soviet Union, 31, 34, 59; early attempts to identify nuclear tests, 21–25; end of moratorium on testing (1961), 31; “flexible response” doctrine, 37; “massive response” doctrine, 37; moratorium on testing (1958), 29; moratorium on testing (1992, 1995), 137, 160; number of nuclear weapons, 15, 238–40; peaceful nuclear explosions (PNEs), 43, 83–86; possible technical achievements for different yield ranges, 221–25; Soviet–U.S. parity in strategic nuclear weapons, 37, 232–41; subcritical experiments, 224; summary of weapons tests, 14; test sites (see Amchitka Island test site; Bikini Atoll test site; Christmas Island test site; Johnston Island test site; Nevada Test Site); underground tests, 23–24, 45–46, 49–51, 56–58, 80–82, 84–86 (see also specific tests); underwater tests, 23; upgrading weapons programs, 250–51. See also Congress, U.S.; monitoring and identification of nuclear weapons tests; nuclear tests, negotiations and debates over banning; specific treaties and presidents

  U.S. National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, xiv; NAS report of 2002, 212–14; NAS report of 2012, 217–31

  U.S. National Authority, 165

  U.S. National Data Center, 153

  USSR. See Russia/Soviet Union

  van Atta, Dale, 237

  van der Vink, Gregory, 118, 134, 135, 216, 218

  Vela Uniform program, 62, 66, 74

  Velikhov, Evgeny, 131

  verification. See monitoring and identification of nuclear weapons tests

  Vine, Fred, 72

  von Hippel, Frank, 118, 131, 207

  Wagner, Richard, 98

  Wallace, Terry, 216

  Walter, William, 218

  Ward, Peter, 71

  Warner, John, 201

  Weinberg, Steven, 248–49

  Wiesner, Jerome, 33

  Wiggins, Graham, 232

  Wigwam test (1955), 23

  Wilke, John, 110

  Williams, Ellen, 218

  Willis, Eric, 1, 3

  Woolsey, James, 206

  WorldWide Standardized Seismograph Network (WWSSN), 65, 70

  xenon, detection of, 163–64, 170, 220–21

  Yeltsin, Boris, 156, 160

  yield: and AFTAC panel, 93–96; and Carter administration science panel (1977), 100–101; CORRTEX method of yield measurement, 120–21, 123, 125; and damage to nearby structures as limit on size of tests, 108–9; DARPA panel meetings on yield determination (1983–1985), 111–14; debate over yield calculations (“yield wars”), xiii, xiv, 59, 91–126, 227; and Defense Science Board ad hoc panel (1977), 98–99; limits of detection, 214, 230; “low-yield” nuclear weapons, 216, 221–22; measured using Lg waves, 121–26; and NAS report of 2002, 214; and OTA’s independent review of test ban issues (1986–1988), 118–19, 133; path effects and possible bias, 103–4 (see also seismic magnitudes); possible technical achievements for different yield ranges, 221–25; published yields of Soviet nuclear tests, 234–35; radiochemical method of yield measurement, 120; resolution of debate by close-in monitoring/calibration of test sites and improved techniques, 103, 120–26; and Soviet–U.S. parity in strategic nuclear weapons, 232–41; and Soviet ICBMs, 233–34; and television interview of 1986 on controversy over nuclear testing, 114–17; and TTBT, 93; uncertainties in measurements, 120, 123–24; U.S. formulas for estimating Soviet yields, 94, 100, 107, 113–14; U.S. overestimation of Soviet yields, 49, 55–61, 69–70, 91, 97, 99, 100, 232–34, 237; yields of Soviet and U.S. tests, 30(figure); yields required for testing by inexperienced and experienced states, 214, 219, 221–25. See also monitoring and identification of nuclear weapons tests; seismic magnitudes

  York, Herbert, 78, 102

  Zavadil, Robert, 93, 94, 133

  Zelentsov, S. A., 125

  ABOUT THE AUTHOR

  Dr. Lynn Sykes has been involved in the identification of underground nuclear testing and the long battle to obtain a total ban on nuclear testing for the past fifty-five years. In 1986 the Federation of American Scientists presented Sykes and two colleagues with its Public Service Award for “Leadership in Applying Seismology to the Banning of Nuclear Tests, Creative in Utilizing Their Science, Effective in Educating Their Nation, Fearless and Tenacious in Struggles within the Bureaucracy.” He also received the John Wesley Powell Award from the U.S. Geological Survey for work on U.S. earthquakes in 1991.

  Sykes became a member of the Staff of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in 1965, remaining there until 2005 when he retired as a professor emeritus. After graduating with bachelors and masters degrees in geology from MIT in 1960, he earned his Ph.D. in seismology at Columbia University in 1965. He became a faculty member in 1968 and then the Higgins Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

  In 1974, as a leading seismologist, Dr. Sykes was invited to become a member of the U.S. delegation that traveled to the Soviet Union to negotiate the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. He testified before the U.S. Congress numerous times as an expert on nuclear-test verification, a subject with large scientific and public policy components.

  Sykes, along with Walter Pitman of Lamont and Jason Morgan of Princeton, showed unequivocally that the Earth’s outermost layers consist of nearly rigid plates that move over the surface. Referred to as plate tectonics, it revolutionized the study of the Earth’s crust, providing an understanding of the formation of mountain ranges, the drifting of the continents, volcanoes, earthquakes, ocean basins, mid-oceanic ridges, deep sea trenches, the evolution of climate, and the distribution of natural resources. Sykes’ research illustrated the importance of great faults that intersect mid-ocean ridges in accommodating plate motion and on underthrusting of plates at subduction zones. Dr. Marcia McNutt, a geophysicist and President of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, called the discovery of plate tectonics “one of the top ten scientific accomplishments of the second half of the 20th century.” The three scientists were awarded the prestigious Vetlesen Prize in 2000.

  Sykes is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Fellow of the Geological Society of America and of the American Geophysical
Union, which honored him with its Macelwane and Bucher awards. He also received the Seismological Society of America’s most prestigious H. F. Reid medal. While officially retired, he continues his research on earthquakes and nuclear explosions and has been hard at work writing this book and one on plate tectonics and great earthquakes.

  Color Illustrations

  The Mike thermonuclear (hydrogen bomb) explosion. Photo by U.S. Atomic Energy Commission.

  Depths (vertical axis) for conducting decoupled nuclear explosions in an air-filled cavity in salt. Yield of the explosion is on the horizontal axis at top; the cavity radius is at bottom. Modified from Davis and Sykes, 1999.

  Seismic events and stations in the vicinity of the main Russian arctic test site at Novaya Zemlya. Red stars show the locations of nuclear tests since 1977. Small blue circles indicate seismic events from 1999 to 2009 of magnitude greater than 2.0. The primary stations of the International Monitoring Service (triangles), the auxiliary station in Sweden (square), and three other publicly available stations (pentagons) are shown in white. The orange diamond locates the Kursk submarine disaster of 2000. Many of the events in Scandinavia, Finland, and mainland Russia were small mine blasts. Source: National Academies Report, 2012.

  Locations of four seismic arrays that continuously monitor the Russian test site on Novaya Zemlya (NZ). Source: Kværna, unpublished figure 2016.

  Ratios of high-frequency P to S waves discriminate (identify) Novaya Zemlya nuclear tests from earthquakes. Left-hand side compares 6–8 Hz (cycles per second) seismic waves at Kevo, Finland, for the 1997 Kara Sea earthquake (in blue) with a nuclear test in 1990 (in red). Right-hand side shows P/S values for five nuclear tests, nonnuclear explosions related to the sinking of the Kursk submarine, and earthquakes on and near Novaya Zemlya. The 1997 and more recent earthquakes in 2007 and 2009 are labeled. Source: National Academies Report, 2012.

  Detection capability in late 2007 of thirty-eight operating primary seismic stations of the International Monitoring System. Contours indicate the magnitude of the smallest event that would be detected with high likelihood (90 percent probability). Prepared by Kværna and Ringdal of NORSAR with yields added for National Academies Report of 2012.

  Measurements of high-frequency seismic waves for earthquakes and explosions near the Chinese test site at Lop Nor from 2000 to 2008. The log of the amplitude ratio of P to Lg seismic waves is shown on the vertical axis. Triangles denote earlier nuclear explosions at regional stations in blue. Yellow circles indicate earthquakes. Explosions have higher values on the vertical axis than earthquakes for frequencies of 4 and 8 Hz (cycles per second). Source: Kim, Richards, and Sykes, 2009.

  Seismic and infrasound stations of the International Monitoring System that detected the North Korean nuclear explosion of 2013. Source: Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, 2013.